{"id":4782,"date":"2023-05-28T20:16:14","date_gmt":"2023-05-28T23:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/acrisure.com.br\/insights\/?p=4782"},"modified":"2026-01-05T11:16:43","modified_gmt":"2026-01-05T14:16:43","slug":"retorno-do-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/acrisure.com.br\/insights\/retorno-do-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"Retorno do El Ni\u00f1o: como a previs\u00e3o de temperaturas recordes pode impactar o agroneg\u00f3cio?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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De acordo com cientistas clim\u00e1ticos, o mundo pode quebrar um novo recorde de temperatura m\u00e9dia em 2023 ou 2024, impulsionado pelo retorno antecipado do fen\u00f4meno El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cAp\u00f3s tr\u00eas anos do padr\u00e3o La Ni\u00f1a, que geralmente reduz ligeiramente as temperaturas globais, o planeta experimentar\u00e1 um retorno ao El Ni\u00f1o, a contraparte mais quente\u201d, destaca Carlo Buontempo, diretor do Servi\u00e7o de Mudan\u00e7as Clim\u00e1ticas Copernicus da Uni\u00e3o Europeia.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Durante o El Ni\u00f1o, os ventos que sopram para o oeste ao longo do Equador diminuem e a \u00e1gua quente \u00e9 empurrada para o leste, criando temperaturas mais quentes na superf\u00edcie do oceano.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cEsse evento clim\u00e1tico \u00e9 normalmente associado a temperaturas recordes em n\u00edvel global. Ainda n\u00e3o se sabe se isso acontecer\u00e1 em 2023 ou 2024\u201d, afirma o diretor.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

O ano mais quente j\u00e1 registrado no mundo\u00a0at\u00e9 agora foi 2016,<\/strong>\u00a0coincidindo com um forte El Ni\u00f1o \u2013 embora a mudan\u00e7a clim\u00e1tica tenha alimentado temperaturas extremas mesmo em anos sem o fen\u00f4meno.<\/p>\n

O fim do La Ni\u00f1a e o retorno do El Ni\u00f1o para a agricultura no Brasil<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\u00a0<\/pre>\n
Ap\u00f3s tr\u00eas anos de in\u00fameros problemas para a produ\u00e7\u00e3o agr\u00edcola do Brasil, o fen\u00f4meno clim\u00e1tico La Ni\u00f1a oficialmente terminou. A confirma\u00e7\u00e3o foi divulgada recentemente pela Administra\u00e7\u00e3o Oce\u00e2nica e Atmosf\u00e9rica (NOAA).<\/p>\n
\n
\u201cO sistema de oceano-atmosfera do Pac\u00edfico tropical passou para neutro, permitindo que a NOAA emitisse o \u201cAviso final sobre La Ni\u00f1a\u201d, informa o boletim.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
Os impactos desse evento foram irrevers\u00edveis para o agroneg\u00f3cio brasileiro. Al\u00e9m da seca e temperaturas mais elevadas no Sul, que influenciaram diretamente na safra de gr\u00e3os, na alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o para o setor de granjeiros e at\u00e9 mesmo no abastecimento para a popula\u00e7\u00e3o, os tr\u00eas anos de La Ni\u00f1a trouxeram efeitos negativos nas \u00faltimas safras de caf\u00e9, laranja e hortifruti de modo geral. Todos os setores\u00a0ainda buscam uma recupera\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>\u00a0efetiva para voltar \u00e0 normalidade na produ\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n
Previs\u00f5es e impactos do El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\u00a0<\/pre>\n
A partir de agora, segundo a NOAA, as aten\u00e7\u00f5es se voltam para o retorno do El Ni\u00f1o no Brasil. A ocorr\u00eancia pode alterar o regime de chuvas j\u00e1 no segundo semestre de 2023.<\/p>\n
\n
\u201cMuitos de nossos modelos clim\u00e1ticos de computador est\u00e3o prevendo uma transi\u00e7\u00e3o para o El Ni\u00f1o ainda este ano, com chances em torno de 60% j\u00e1 no outono\u201d, afirma a \u00faltima an\u00e1lise.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
O NOAA destacou ainda que os pr\u00f3ximos meses ser\u00e3o determinantes para a confirma\u00e7\u00e3o do fen\u00f4meno clim\u00e1tico. O per\u00edodo atual \u00e9, de acordo com a publica\u00e7\u00e3o, justamente quando os modelos t\u00eam mais dificuldade em fazer previs\u00f5es precisas.<\/p>\n
Em terras brasileiras, se tratando de um fen\u00f4meno cl\u00e1ssico, as regi\u00f5es que mais sentem a influ\u00eancia do El Ni\u00f1o s\u00e3o\u00a0o Sul e Nordeste.<\/strong>\u00a0Na regi\u00e3o Sul, a tend\u00eancia \u00e9 de chuvas mais frequentes e abundantes, enquanto no setor nordestino as precipita\u00e7\u00f5es tendem a ser abaixo da m\u00e9dia, com grande possibilidade de secas e estiagens. Ou seja, a expectativa \u00e9 de um cen\u00e1rio totalmente diferente do observado nos \u00faltimos anos.<\/p>\n
Reflexos do fen\u00f4meno em outros pa\u00edses<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\u00a0<\/pre>\n
Olhando para os nossos vizinhos argentinos e uruguaios, a condi\u00e7\u00e3o clim\u00e1tica tamb\u00e9m deve mudar bastante, uma vez que ambos os pa\u00edses passaram por seca generalizada ao longo dos \u00faltimos anos, resultando em grandes quebras de safra. Segundo o Servicio Meteorol\u00f3gico Nacional (SMN), o m\u00eas de mar\u00e7o foi marcado por muito calor, mas com retorno gradual das chuvas. Em outras palavras,\u00a0p\u00e1gina virada<\/strong>\u00a0e com boas perspectivas.<\/p>\n
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